Buy a hybrid car or...

The other day a friend and I were chatting about gas mileage. I commented how my in-law's hybrid gets a bit more than 40 miles a gallon. He remarked that his twenty-year old Honda Civic hatchback got a bit more than 40 miles a gallon. And we wondered why it has taken two decades to make no progress. Here's one reason.

(Warning: These are not well-vetted numbers. Just numbers I quickly came across doing some Internet research. That said, I am trying to err on the conservative side of the statistics.)

25 million cars registered in California

Average car gets 20 miles to the gallon

California gas tax is $.40 before state sales and local taxes, which I'm excluding from these calculations.

Californians drive 800 million miles a day

Thus each and every day California takes in $16 million. That's $5.8 billion a year.

What if everyone got a hybrid that gets the same gas mileage as a twenty-year old Honda Civic hatchback, that is, 40 miles a gallon? California would take in $8 million a day or $3 billion a year.

And what if the average were 100 miles a gallon? $3.2 million a day or $1.2 billion a year.

Now just try to imagine what the numbers are like for the entire United States. Guess what? Our country isn't incentivized to sell you and me hybrid vehicles that get 100 miles to the gallon. Don't expect any radical MPG innovation anytime soon.

Comments

[James]

You're also overlooking all the weight that has been added to cars over the last 20 years. Safety features have easily added 500-1000 pounds to just about every car on the road. Not to mention that consumers wouldn't put up with the performance of that 20 year old civic these days either, especially with the added weight.

[John Hannah]

I just bought a 2008 Chevy HHR after my brother showed up with one last January. He was getting 35+mpg with one, now I am getting over 40. Lots of room and comforts for a big guy like me. But as to the mileage, I drive on the highway at 53 to 55mph and get 41-42mpg on the flat with no wind. If I put my foot in it and go 60 it goes to 36 and at 65 goes to 32. That is 28% more fuel at 65mph. I have a diesel truck also. It gets over 22mpg in warm weather at 55mph, but at 65mph it get about 16mpg. That is 37% more fuel. Now you do the math, consider how much our trade deficit would go down if we had a 55mph national speed limit enforced. Was Jimmy Carter's energy policy right, or was Ronald Reagan who ditched the 55mph and most of Carter's other energy conservation initiatives. Guess it is better to be warm and fuzzy than right?

[CZ Jewelry]

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Love to read more from you on the topic above

[Brandon Smith]

Your argument stands at equal importance with the first commenter's. Both work toward keeping milage low. Luckily there are firms like Aptera out there working to meet or exceed current standards of safety while accepting nothing less than 100 mpg. And, as I blogged about today on brandonsmith.com, Obama's Department of Energy just cleared the way for Aptera to compete for gov't loans against traditional car companies. Let's just hope the president (and Cali's governor) sets right the tax incentives too.

[Scott Magoon]

I think there are two things that account for the consistency of fuel mileage in the U.S. And by the way, it’s not just a 20 year phenomenon. Henry Ford’s original Model T got about the same mileage as the current U.S. average of 17-19 mpg.

One factor is political. Auto manufacturers, absent government forcing them to produce higher mileage vehicles, are not going to lead the market. If their buyers want bigger cars and heavier trucks then that is what they will build. U.S. drivers are not forcing the issue with their buying behavior. The government is loathe to force a higher mileage change because of pushback from the auto industry and the threatened job losses if they change from producing bigger vehicles with higher profits. Of course one would think that all bets are off if the U.S. auto industry implodes and is bailed out by the government.

Second, there actually have been technological advances in engines, but it has all gone into horsepower. The range of horsepower across the available engines has increased from 60-120 in 1989 to 140-260 in 2009. Today’s Honda Civic is 400 lbs heavier than the 20-year old model your friend has, primarily for safety enhancements, and is still much faster. Those are the factors that auto buyers are voting for with their dollars.

The loss of fuel tax revenue you site would happen so gradually over time if buyers chose different types of vehicles that the per-gallon taxes would just creep up to produce the same net revenue.